Rumors? - Page 5

06-29-2004, 09:14 AM

On 29 Jun 2004 09:57:33 -0700, [Only registered and activated users can see links. ] (bfd) wrote:

>Thanks for the insight. I agree that if you want a new bike NOW, get
>it, don't wait! However, if the Chinese are increasing their costs,
>how soon will it be before these same mfrs will move their production
>facilities over to other "lower-cost" countries like maybe the
>Philippines or Vietnam or even Cambodia....

What's increasing is raw materials costs, particularly steel, and from
what I gather, that seems to be more or less global as Chinese
consumption rises.

Labor costs in China are still fairly low; don't let the propaganda
fool you--the interior of the country is still largely undeveloped,
and the flood of peasants migrating into the coastal cities makes for
a buyers' market in laborers.

Of course, as a Filipino, I'd love to see more action move into the
ASEAN area and particularly into the Philippines. I'd be interested
to see how costs stack up; I suspect the Chinese have other
advantages other than their low labor costs that make manufacturing
cheaper there--at least for metalbashing industries.

-Luigi

[Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
photos, rants, raves

06-29-2004, 09:21 AM

In article <[Only registered and activated users can see links. ]>, luigi12081
@cox.net says...
> On 29 Jun 2004 09:57:33 -0700, [Only registered and activated users can see links. ] (bfd) wrote:
>
> >Thanks for the insight. I agree that if you want a new bike NOW, get
> >it, don't wait! However, if the Chinese are increasing their costs,
> >how soon will it be before these same mfrs will move their production
> >facilities over to other "lower-cost" countries like maybe the
> >Philippines or Vietnam or even Cambodia....
>
> What's increasing is raw materials costs, particularly steel, and from
> what I gather, that seems to be more or less global as Chinese
> consumption rises.
>
> Labor costs in China are still fairly low; don't let the propaganda
> fool you--the interior of the country is still largely undeveloped,
> and the flood of peasants migrating into the coastal cities makes for
> a buyers' market in laborers.
>
> Of course, as a Filipino, I'd love to see more action move into the
> ASEAN area and particularly into the Philippines. I'd be interested
> to see how costs stack up; I suspect the Chinese have other
> advantages other than their low labor costs that make manufacturing
> cheaper there--at least for metalbashing industries.

Ease of transportation of raw materials (coal, iron ore, etc) from the
mines to the factories probably being a major one. The terrorist
activities in certain parts of the Philippines doesn't help their
prospects either, I'm sure.

--
Remove the ns_ from if replying by e-mail (but keep posts in the
newsgroups if possible).

06-29-2004, 09:21 AM

In article <[Only registered and activated users can see links. ]>, luigi12081
@cox.net says...
> On 29 Jun 2004 09:57:33 -0700, [Only registered and activated users can see links. ] (bfd) wrote:
>
> >Thanks for the insight. I agree that if you want a new bike NOW, get
> >it, don't wait! However, if the Chinese are increasing their costs,
> >how soon will it be before these same mfrs will move their production
> >facilities over to other "lower-cost" countries like maybe the
> >Philippines or Vietnam or even Cambodia....
>
> What's increasing is raw materials costs, particularly steel, and from
> what I gather, that seems to be more or less global as Chinese
> consumption rises.
>
> Labor costs in China are still fairly low; don't let the propaganda
> fool you--the interior of the country is still largely undeveloped,
> and the flood of peasants migrating into the coastal cities makes for
> a buyers' market in laborers.
>
> Of course, as a Filipino, I'd love to see more action move into the
> ASEAN area and particularly into the Philippines. I'd be interested
> to see how costs stack up; I suspect the Chinese have other
> advantages other than their low labor costs that make manufacturing
> cheaper there--at least for metalbashing industries.

Ease of transportation of raw materials (coal, iron ore, etc) from the
mines to the factories probably being a major one. The terrorist
activities in certain parts of the Philippines doesn't help their
prospects either, I'm sure.

--
Remove the ns_ from if replying by e-mail (but keep posts in the
newsgroups if possible).

06-29-2004, 09:21 AM

In article <[Only registered and activated users can see links. ]>, luigi12081
@cox.net says...
> On 29 Jun 2004 09:57:33 -0700, [Only registered and activated users can see links. ] (bfd) wrote:
>
> >Thanks for the insight. I agree that if you want a new bike NOW, get
> >it, don't wait! However, if the Chinese are increasing their costs,
> >how soon will it be before these same mfrs will move their production
> >facilities over to other "lower-cost" countries like maybe the
> >Philippines or Vietnam or even Cambodia....
>
> What's increasing is raw materials costs, particularly steel, and from
> what I gather, that seems to be more or less global as Chinese
> consumption rises.
>
> Labor costs in China are still fairly low; don't let the propaganda
> fool you--the interior of the country is still largely undeveloped,
> and the flood of peasants migrating into the coastal cities makes for
> a buyers' market in laborers.
>
> Of course, as a Filipino, I'd love to see more action move into the
> ASEAN area and particularly into the Philippines. I'd be interested
> to see how costs stack up; I suspect the Chinese have other
> advantages other than their low labor costs that make manufacturing
> cheaper there--at least for metalbashing industries.

Ease of transportation of raw materials (coal, iron ore, etc) from the
mines to the factories probably being a major one. The terrorist
activities in certain parts of the Philippines doesn't help their
prospects either, I'm sure.

--
Remove the ns_ from if replying by e-mail (but keep posts in the
newsgroups if possible).

06-29-2004, 09:21 AM

In article <[Only registered and activated users can see links. ]>, luigi12081
@cox.net says...
> On 29 Jun 2004 09:57:33 -0700, [Only registered and activated users can see links. ] (bfd) wrote:
>
> >Thanks for the insight. I agree that if you want a new bike NOW, get
> >it, don't wait! However, if the Chinese are increasing their costs,
> >how soon will it be before these same mfrs will move their production
> >facilities over to other "lower-cost" countries like maybe the
> >Philippines or Vietnam or even Cambodia....
>
> What's increasing is raw materials costs, particularly steel, and from
> what I gather, that seems to be more or less global as Chinese
> consumption rises.
>
> Labor costs in China are still fairly low; don't let the propaganda
> fool you--the interior of the country is still largely undeveloped,
> and the flood of peasants migrating into the coastal cities makes for
> a buyers' market in laborers.
>
> Of course, as a Filipino, I'd love to see more action move into the
> ASEAN area and particularly into the Philippines. I'd be interested
> to see how costs stack up; I suspect the Chinese have other
> advantages other than their low labor costs that make manufacturing
> cheaper there--at least for metalbashing industries.

Ease of transportation of raw materials (coal, iron ore, etc) from the
mines to the factories probably being a major one. The terrorist
activities in certain parts of the Philippines doesn't help their
prospects either, I'm sure.

--
Remove the ns_ from if replying by e-mail (but keep posts in the
newsgroups if possible).

06-29-2004, 09:21 AM

In article <[Only registered and activated users can see links. ]>, luigi12081
@cox.net says...
> On 29 Jun 2004 09:57:33 -0700, [Only registered and activated users can see links. ] (bfd) wrote:
>
> >Thanks for the insight. I agree that if you want a new bike NOW, get
> >it, don't wait! However, if the Chinese are increasing their costs,
> >how soon will it be before these same mfrs will move their production
> >facilities over to other "lower-cost" countries like maybe the
> >Philippines or Vietnam or even Cambodia....
>
> What's increasing is raw materials costs, particularly steel, and from
> what I gather, that seems to be more or less global as Chinese
> consumption rises.
>
> Labor costs in China are still fairly low; don't let the propaganda
> fool you--the interior of the country is still largely undeveloped,
> and the flood of peasants migrating into the coastal cities makes for
> a buyers' market in laborers.
>
> Of course, as a Filipino, I'd love to see more action move into the
> ASEAN area and particularly into the Philippines. I'd be interested
> to see how costs stack up; I suspect the Chinese have other
> advantages other than their low labor costs that make manufacturing
> cheaper there--at least for metalbashing industries.

Ease of transportation of raw materials (coal, iron ore, etc) from the
mines to the factories probably being a major one. The terrorist
activities in certain parts of the Philippines doesn't help their
prospects either, I'm sure.

--
Remove the ns_ from if replying by e-mail (but keep posts in the
newsgroups if possible).

06-30-2004, 10:51 PM

> Thanks for the insight. I agree that if you want a new bike NOW, get
> it, don't wait! However, if the Chinese are increasing their costs,
> how soon will it be before these same mfrs will move their production
> facilities over to other "lower-cost" countries like maybe the
> Philippines or Vietnam or even Cambodia....

It's inevitable that production will continue to shift towards emerging
3rd-world countries as a means to save money. However, the Philippines
might not be as likely as many others, since they've become relatively
stagnant in their "emergence." One would have thought that the Philippines
would have evolved into a major manufacturing center long ago, given their
relative proximity to countries that have long felt the effects of improving
(and expensive) living standards. Probably just shows my ignorance of the
Asian economic situation.

Perhaps the appeal of China is that it's SO vast that it would appear to
offer almost limitless potential as a manufacturing center. Further, if you
can work with the present government, the thought might be that things can
only get better down the road (or at least not a situation where you're
concerned that a sudden revolution might come about, leaving your investment
worthless as the government takes it over).

--Mike Jacoubowsky
Chain Reaction Bicycles
[Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
IMBA, BikesBelong, NBDA member

"bfd" <[Only registered and activated users can see links. ]> wrote in message
news:9411a749.0406290857.43a6080c@posting.google.c om...
> "Mike Jacoubowsky" <[Only registered and activated users can see links. ]> wrote in message
news:<3k8Ec.4342$[Only registered and activated users can see links. ].prodigy.c om>...
> > > To those of you in the know, or even those who enjoy speculating:
> > >
> > > Why do I keep hearing/reading about imminent price hikes on bikes
and/or
> > > components?
> > > Are they true?
> > > I'd like to buy new, and am wondering whether to wait until this
winter,
> > or
> > > if I'd be wiser to act sooner.
> > >
> > > Thanks all,
> >
> > The bicycle industry is desperately *trying* to increase prices, since
most
> > of it's awash in red ink. That's nothing new, and prices have been held
> > down by an oversupply situation. However, wholesale prices from OEMs
have,
> > for the first time, been ticking upward significantly. Most of this is
due
> > to increased demands from China, which is beginning to make itself known
as
> > a very large (and rapidly-growing) consumer of raw materials. Some feel
> > that the demand from China will have far-reaching inflationary effects
> > throughout most industries. However, much of the increased costs from
China
> > will be offset as production is still far cheaper there than elsewhere,
so
> > as more of it moves from higher-priced locales to China, prices are kept
> > down (despite the fact that Chinese-manufactured goods are going up).
> >
> > But none of this is all that relevant to someone wanting a new bike. If
you
> > have a need for one now, you'll get to make use of it for several months
of
> > great summer riding. That adds significant value to the don't-wait side
of
> > the equation!
> >
> Mike
> Thanks for the insight. I agree that if you want a new bike NOW, get
> it, don't wait! However, if the Chinese are increasing their costs,
> how soon will it be before these same mfrs will move their production
> facilities over to other "lower-cost" countries like maybe the
> Philippines or Vietnam or even Cambodia....

06-30-2004, 10:51 PM

> Thanks for the insight. I agree that if you want a new bike NOW, get
> it, don't wait! However, if the Chinese are increasing their costs,
> how soon will it be before these same mfrs will move their production
> facilities over to other "lower-cost" countries like maybe the
> Philippines or Vietnam or even Cambodia....

It's inevitable that production will continue to shift towards emerging
3rd-world countries as a means to save money. However, the Philippines
might not be as likely as many others, since they've become relatively
stagnant in their "emergence." One would have thought that the Philippines
would have evolved into a major manufacturing center long ago, given their
relative proximity to countries that have long felt the effects of improving
(and expensive) living standards. Probably just shows my ignorance of the
Asian economic situation.

Perhaps the appeal of China is that it's SO vast that it would appear to
offer almost limitless potential as a manufacturing center. Further, if you
can work with the present government, the thought might be that things can
only get better down the road (or at least not a situation where you're
concerned that a sudden revolution might come about, leaving your investment
worthless as the government takes it over).

--Mike Jacoubowsky
Chain Reaction Bicycles
[Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
IMBA, BikesBelong, NBDA member

"bfd" <[Only registered and activated users can see links. ]> wrote in message
news:9411a749.0406290857.43a6080c@posting.google.c om...
> "Mike Jacoubowsky" <[Only registered and activated users can see links. ]> wrote in message
news:<3k8Ec.4342$[Only registered and activated users can see links. ].prodigy.c om>...
> > > To those of you in the know, or even those who enjoy speculating:
> > >
> > > Why do I keep hearing/reading about imminent price hikes on bikes
and/or
> > > components?
> > > Are they true?
> > > I'd like to buy new, and am wondering whether to wait until this
winter,
> > or
> > > if I'd be wiser to act sooner.
> > >
> > > Thanks all,
> >
> > The bicycle industry is desperately *trying* to increase prices, since
most
> > of it's awash in red ink. That's nothing new, and prices have been held
> > down by an oversupply situation. However, wholesale prices from OEMs
have,
> > for the first time, been ticking upward significantly. Most of this is
due
> > to increased demands from China, which is beginning to make itself known
as
> > a very large (and rapidly-growing) consumer of raw materials. Some feel
> > that the demand from China will have far-reaching inflationary effects
> > throughout most industries. However, much of the increased costs from
China
> > will be offset as production is still far cheaper there than elsewhere,
so
> > as more of it moves from higher-priced locales to China, prices are kept
> > down (despite the fact that Chinese-manufactured goods are going up).
> >
> > But none of this is all that relevant to someone wanting a new bike. If
you
> > have a need for one now, you'll get to make use of it for several months
of
> > great summer riding. That adds significant value to the don't-wait side
of
> > the equation!
> >
> Mike
> Thanks for the insight. I agree that if you want a new bike NOW, get
> it, don't wait! However, if the Chinese are increasing their costs,
> how soon will it be before these same mfrs will move their production
> facilities over to other "lower-cost" countries like maybe the
> Philippines or Vietnam or even Cambodia....

06-30-2004, 10:51 PM

> Thanks for the insight. I agree that if you want a new bike NOW, get
> it, don't wait! However, if the Chinese are increasing their costs,
> how soon will it be before these same mfrs will move their production
> facilities over to other "lower-cost" countries like maybe the
> Philippines or Vietnam or even Cambodia....

It's inevitable that production will continue to shift towards emerging
3rd-world countries as a means to save money. However, the Philippines
might not be as likely as many others, since they've become relatively
stagnant in their "emergence." One would have thought that the Philippines
would have evolved into a major manufacturing center long ago, given their
relative proximity to countries that have long felt the effects of improving
(and expensive) living standards. Probably just shows my ignorance of the
Asian economic situation.

Perhaps the appeal of China is that it's SO vast that it would appear to
offer almost limitless potential as a manufacturing center. Further, if you
can work with the present government, the thought might be that things can
only get better down the road (or at least not a situation where you're
concerned that a sudden revolution might come about, leaving your investment
worthless as the government takes it over).

--Mike Jacoubowsky
Chain Reaction Bicycles
[Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
IMBA, BikesBelong, NBDA member

"bfd" <[Only registered and activated users can see links. ]> wrote in message
news:9411a749.0406290857.43a6080c@posting.google.c om...
> "Mike Jacoubowsky" <[Only registered and activated users can see links. ]> wrote in message
news:<3k8Ec.4342$[Only registered and activated users can see links. ].prodigy.c om>...
> > > To those of you in the know, or even those who enjoy speculating:
> > >
> > > Why do I keep hearing/reading about imminent price hikes on bikes
and/or
> > > components?
> > > Are they true?
> > > I'd like to buy new, and am wondering whether to wait until this
winter,
> > or
> > > if I'd be wiser to act sooner.
> > >
> > > Thanks all,
> >
> > The bicycle industry is desperately *trying* to increase prices, since
most
> > of it's awash in red ink. That's nothing new, and prices have been held
> > down by an oversupply situation. However, wholesale prices from OEMs
have,
> > for the first time, been ticking upward significantly. Most of this is
due
> > to increased demands from China, which is beginning to make itself known
as
> > a very large (and rapidly-growing) consumer of raw materials. Some feel
> > that the demand from China will have far-reaching inflationary effects
> > throughout most industries. However, much of the increased costs from
China
> > will be offset as production is still far cheaper there than elsewhere,
so
> > as more of it moves from higher-priced locales to China, prices are kept
> > down (despite the fact that Chinese-manufactured goods are going up).
> >
> > But none of this is all that relevant to someone wanting a new bike. If
you
> > have a need for one now, you'll get to make use of it for several months
of
> > great summer riding. That adds significant value to the don't-wait side
of
> > the equation!
> >
> Mike
> Thanks for the insight. I agree that if you want a new bike NOW, get
> it, don't wait! However, if the Chinese are increasing their costs,
> how soon will it be before these same mfrs will move their production
> facilities over to other "lower-cost" countries like maybe the
> Philippines or Vietnam or even Cambodia....

06-30-2004, 10:51 PM

> Thanks for the insight. I agree that if you want a new bike NOW, get
> it, don't wait! However, if the Chinese are increasing their costs,
> how soon will it be before these same mfrs will move their production
> facilities over to other "lower-cost" countries like maybe the
> Philippines or Vietnam or even Cambodia....

It's inevitable that production will continue to shift towards emerging
3rd-world countries as a means to save money. However, the Philippines
might not be as likely as many others, since they've become relatively
stagnant in their "emergence." One would have thought that the Philippines
would have evolved into a major manufacturing center long ago, given their
relative proximity to countries that have long felt the effects of improving
(and expensive) living standards. Probably just shows my ignorance of the
Asian economic situation.

Perhaps the appeal of China is that it's SO vast that it would appear to
offer almost limitless potential as a manufacturing center. Further, if you
can work with the present government, the thought might be that things can
only get better down the road (or at least not a situation where you're
concerned that a sudden revolution might come about, leaving your investment
worthless as the government takes it over).

--Mike Jacoubowsky
Chain Reaction Bicycles
[Only registered and activated users can see links. ]
IMBA, BikesBelong, NBDA member

"bfd" <[Only registered and activated users can see links. ]> wrote in message
news:9411a749.0406290857.43a6080c@posting.google.c om...
> "Mike Jacoubowsky" <[Only registered and activated users can see links. ]> wrote in message
news:<3k8Ec.4342$[Only registered and activated users can see links. ].prodigy.c om>...
> > > To those of you in the know, or even those who enjoy speculating:
> > >
> > > Why do I keep hearing/reading about imminent price hikes on bikes
and/or
> > > components?
> > > Are they true?
> > > I'd like to buy new, and am wondering whether to wait until this
winter,
> > or
> > > if I'd be wiser to act sooner.
> > >
> > > Thanks all,
> >
> > The bicycle industry is desperately *trying* to increase prices, since
most
> > of it's awash in red ink. That's nothing new, and prices have been held
> > down by an oversupply situation. However, wholesale prices from OEMs
have,
> > for the first time, been ticking upward significantly. Most of this is
due
> > to increased demands from China, which is beginning to make itself known
as
> > a very large (and rapidly-growing) consumer of raw materials. Some feel
> > that the demand from China will have far-reaching inflationary effects
> > throughout most industries. However, much of the increased costs from
China
> > will be offset as production is still far cheaper there than elsewhere,
so
> > as more of it moves from higher-priced locales to China, prices are kept
> > down (despite the fact that Chinese-manufactured goods are going up).
> >
> > But none of this is all that relevant to someone wanting a new bike. If
you
> > have a need for one now, you'll get to make use of it for several months
of
> > great summer riding. That adds significant value to the don't-wait side
of
> > the equation!
> >
> Mike
> Thanks for the insight. I agree that if you want a new bike NOW, get
> it, don't wait! However, if the Chinese are increasing their costs,
> how soon will it be before these same mfrs will move their production
> facilities over to other "lower-cost" countries like maybe the
> Philippines or Vietnam or even Cambodia....